Monday, October 19, 2015

EKOS seat forecast for the 2015 federal election

You may be wondering where I've been during the campaign, and why I haven't done any projections or maps. Well, as part of my day job at EKOS Research, I've been working on an internal seat projection model based on our polling numbers, with my colleague Graham Pressey. Now that the campaign is over, I am pleased to be able to release the final product to the public. I am hoping that I have been able build on my successful qualitative and quantitative seat projections in the past by having access to a lot more data than I would have had ever dreamed of in the past. While I am helped my access to this data, the fact that this election has proven to be very volatile, will in no doubt effect the accuracy of my final numbers.

I haven't much time for this post, so I will just summarize my findings. You can read more about the process here.



Our overall numbers show the Liberals winning a strong minority with 151 seats out of the new total seat count of 338 (170 seats are needed for a majority). The forecast shows the Conservatives in opposition at 116 seats, the NDP falling to 54, the Bloc rebounding to 16 seats, and the Greens hanging on to their one seat.

In Atlantic Canada, we have consistently shown the Liberals dominating, to the degree that they may win nearly every seat, including winning every seat in Nova Scotia and PEI. I have the Conservatives winning just two seats (in New Brunswick) and the NDP would just win one seat in the region, in Newfoundland specifically.

Quebec proved to be a nightmare in my attempt to make a decision for each seat. While our numbers show the NDP just barely winning the popular vote in the province, they may just finish in 2nd place in a lot of seats. The Liberals have the true momentum in the province, and are likely going to win nearly every seat in Montreal, and a number of seats off the island. The Conservatives have made significant gains in the province, and are likely to win almost every seat in the Quebec City area. With the Bloc now polling just as high as they did in 2011, they will make gains based solely on vote splitting between the other three parties. Overall, I have the Liberals winning 27 seats in the province, the NDP 22, the Bloc 16 and the Conservatives 13.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a lot of momentum, and are set to win nearly every seat in the GTA, and in Ottawa. Outside of these regions, they will make gains into territory they have not won in over a decade. The Conservatives will be reduced to a handful of rural seats, and if they are likely a couple of seats in the GTA. The NDP has seen declining poll numbers in the province, and will be left with a caucus of their most popular incumbents, and a couple of new seats if they are lucky. Overall, I have the Liberals winning 79 seats in Ontario, the Conservatives 29 and the NDP 13.

In Manitoba, the Liberals have won back a lot of historical support, and are set to win nearly every seat in Winnipeg. Outside the city though, the Conservatives will likely win every riding, except Churchill, which might be the only NDP seat left in the province.

In Saskatchewan, new riding boundaries will benefit the NDP the most, giving them the chance to win 2 seats. The Conservatives will win the rest of the province, save Regina—Wascana, which the Liberals should retain.

In Alberta, the “orange chinook” has blown away, and I am predicting the status quo, i.e. the Tories winning every seat except Edmonton Strathcona (which will likely stay in NDP hands). That is not to say we won't see any seat changes, as the Liberals are eyeing a couple of seats in Calgary, and the NDP a couple in Edmonton.

In BC, we have seen some last minute shifts to the Conservatives, which should help them retain most of their seats, mostly in the Interior and the Fraser Valley. The Liberals are set to make inroads in the Lower Mainland, winning back their historical vote in Vancouver, Burnaby and on the north shore. The NDP could see some seat losses in the Lower Mainland, which will be offset by some gains on Vancouver Island. The Greens are particularly strong on Vancouver Island, but only strong enough to retain their one seat in Saanich—Gulf Islands.

Finally, in the Territories, they Liberals are set to win back both Yukon and Nunavut, while the race in the Northwest Territories is sure to be a close one, but I expect the NDP should hang on to it.

Riding-by-riding forecasts:

Newfoundland and Labrador
FORECAST
Avalon
LIBERAL
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity
LIBERAL
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame
LIBERAL
Labrador
LIBERAL
Long Range Mountains
LIBERAL
St. John’s East
NDP
St. John’s South—Mount Pearl
LIBERAL
Prince Edward Island
FORECAST
Cardigan
LIBERAL
Charlottetown
LIBERAL
Egmont
LIBERAL
Malpeque
LIBERAL
Nova Scotia
FORECAST
Cape Breton—Canso
LIBERAL
Central Nova
LIBERAL
Cumberland—Colchester
LIBERAL
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
LIBERAL
Halifax
LIBERAL
Halifax West
LIBERAL
Kings—Hants
LIBERAL
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook
LIBERAL
South Shore—St. Margarets
LIBERAL
Sydney—Victoria
LIBERAL
West Nova
LIBERAL
New Brunswick
FORECAST
Acadie—Bathurst
LIBERAL
Beauséjour
LIBERAL
Fredericton
LIBERAL
Fundy Royal
CONSERVATIVE
Madawaska—Restigouche
LIBERAL
Miramichi—Grand Lake
LIBERAL
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe
LIBERAL
New Brunswick Southwest
CONSERVATIVE
Saint John—Rothesay
LIBERAL
Tobique—Mactaquac
LIBERAL
Quebec
FORECAST
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
NDP
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
NDP
Ahuntsic-Cartierville
LIBERAL
Alfred-Pellan
LIBERAL
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation
LIBERAL
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
LIBERAL
Beauce
CONSERVATIVE
Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d'Orléans–Charlevoix
CONSERVATIVE
Beauport—Limoilou
CONSERVATIVE
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel
BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis
CONSERVATIVE
Beloeil—Chambly
BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé
NDP
Bourassa
LIBERAL
Brome—Missisquoi
LIBERAL
Brossard—Saint-Lambert
LIBERAL
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
CONSERVATIVE
Châteauguay—Lacolle
BQ
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
NDP
Compton—Stanstead
NDP
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle
LIBERAL
Drummond
NDP
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
LIBERAL
Gatineau
LIBERAL
Hochelaga
NDP
Honoré-Mercier
LIBERAL
Hull—Aylmer
LIBERAL
Joliette
BQ
Jonquière
NDP
La Pointe-de-l'Île
NDP
La Prairie
BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean
CONSERVATIVE
Lac-Saint-Louis
LIBERAL
LaSalle–Émard–Verdun
LIBERAL
Laurentides—Labelle
BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
BQ
Laval—Les Îles
LIBERAL
Lévis—Lotbinière
CONSERVATIVE
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne
BQ
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
BQ
Louis-Hébert
CONSERVATIVE
Louis-Saint-Laurent
CONSERVATIVE
Manicouagan
NDP
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
LIBERAL
Mégantic—L'Érable
CONSERVATIVE
Mirabel
BQ
Montarville
BQ
Montcalm
BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
CONSERVATIVE
Mount Royal
LIBERAL
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
LIBERAL
Outremont
NDP
Papineau
LIBERAL
Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères
BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard
LIBERAL
Pontiac
LIBERAL
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
CONSERVATIVE
Québec
NDP
Repentigny
BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska
CONSERVATIVE
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
NDP
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
NDP
Rivière-du-Nord
BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
NDP
Saint-Jean
NDP
Saint-Laurent
LIBERAL
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel
LIBERAL
Saint-Maurice—Champlain
LIBERAL
Salaberry—Suroît
BQ
Shefford
NDP
Sherbrooke
NDP
Terrebonne
NDP
Thérèse-De Blainville
NDP
Trois-Rivières
NDP
Vaudreuil—Soulanges
LIBERAL
Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs
LIBERAL
Vimy
LIBERAL
Ontario
FORECAST
Ajax
LIBERAL
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing
NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
LIBERAL
Barrie—Innisfil
LIBERAL
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
LIBERAL
Bay of Quinte
LIBERAL
Beaches—East York
LIBERAL
Brampton Centre
LIBERAL
Brampton East
LIBERAL
Brampton North
LIBERAL
Brampton South
LIBERAL
Brampton West
LIBERAL
Brantford–Brant
LIBERAL
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
CONSERVATIVE
Burlington
CONSERVATIVE
Cambridge
LIBERAL
Carleton
CONSERVATIVE
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
CONSERVATIVE
Davenport
LIBERAL
Don Valley East
LIBERAL
Don Valley North
LIBERAL
Don Valley West
LIBERAL
Dufferin—Caledon
CONSERVATIVE
Durham
LIBERAL
Eglinton—Lawrence
LIBERAL
Elgin—Middlesex—London
CONSERVATIVE
Essex
CONSERVATIVE
Etobicoke Centre
LIBERAL
Etobicoke North
LIBERAL
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
LIBERAL
Flamborough—Glanbrook
CONSERVATIVE
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
LIBERAL
Guelph
LIBERAL
Haldimand—Norfolk
CONSERVATIVE
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
CONSERVATIVE
Hamilton Centre
NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
NDP
Hamilton Mountain
LIBERAL
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
LIBERAL
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
CONSERVATIVE
Humber River–Black Creek
LIBERAL
Huron—Bruce
LIBERAL
Kanata—Carleton
LIBERAL
Kenora
NDP
King—Vaughan
LIBERAL
Kingston and the Islands
LIBERAL
Kitchener Centre
LIBERAL
Kitchener South—Hespeler
LIBERAL
Kitchener—Conestoga
LIBERAL
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
CONSERVATIVE
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
CONSERVATIVE
Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
CONSERVATIVE
London North Centre
LIBERAL
London West
LIBERAL
London—Fanshawe
NDP
Markham—Stouffville
LIBERAL
Markham—Thornhill
LIBERAL
Markham—Unionville
LIBERAL
Milton
CONSERVATIVE
Mississauga Centre
LIBERAL
Mississauga East–Cooksville
LIBERAL
Mississauga—Erin Mills
LIBERAL
Mississauga—Lakeshore
LIBERAL
Mississauga—Malton
LIBERAL
Mississauga—Streetsville
LIBERAL
Nepean
LIBERAL
Newmarket—Aurora
LIBERAL
Niagara Centre
NDP
Niagara Falls
CONSERVATIVE
Niagara West
CONSERVATIVE
Nickel Belt
NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming
LIBERAL
Northumberland–Peterborough South
LIBERAL
Oakville
LIBERAL
Oakville North—Burlington
LIBERAL
Orléans
LIBERAL
Oshawa
NDP
Ottawa Centre
NDP
Ottawa South
LIBERAL
Ottawa West—Nepean
LIBERAL
Ottawa—Vanier
LIBERAL
Oxford
CONSERVATIVE
Parkdale—High Park
LIBERAL
Parry Sound—Muskoka
CONSERVATIVE
Perth—Wellington
CONSERVATIVE
Peterborough–Kawartha
LIBERAL
Pickering—Uxbridge
LIBERAL
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
CONSERVATIVE
Richmond Hill
LIBERAL
Sarnia—Lambton
CONSERVATIVE
Sault Ste. Marie
LIBERAL
Scarborough Centre
LIBERAL
Scarborough North
LIBERAL
Scarborough Southwest
LIBERAL
Scarborough—Agincourt
LIBERAL
Scarborough—Guildwood
LIBERAL
Scarborough—Rouge Park
LIBERAL
Simcoe North
CONSERVATIVE
Simcoe—Grey
CONSERVATIVE
Spadina—Fort York
LIBERAL
St. Catharines
LIBERAL
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
CONSERVATIVE
Sudbury
LIBERAL
Thornhill
CONSERVATIVE
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
LIBERAL
Thunder Bay—Superior North
LIBERAL
Timmins—James Bay
NDP
Toronto Centre
LIBERAL
Toronto–St. Paul's
LIBERAL
Toronto—Danforth
NDP
University—Rosedale
LIBERAL
Vaughan—Woodbridge
LIBERAL
Waterloo
LIBERAL
Wellington—Halton Hills
CONSERVATIVE
Whitby
LIBERAL
Willowdale
LIBERAL
Windsor West
NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh
NDP
York Centre
CONSERVATIVE
York South—Weston
LIBERAL
York—Simcoe
CONSERVATIVE
Manitoba
FORECAST
Brandon—Souris
CONSERVATIVE
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley
CONSERVATIVE
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa
CONSERVATIVE
Elmwood—Transcona
CONSERVATIVE
Kildonan—St. Paul
CONSERVATIVE
Portage—Lisgar
CONSERVATIVE
Provencher
CONSERVATIVE
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
LIBERAL
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman
CONSERVATIVE
Winnipeg Centre
LIBERAL
Winnipeg North
LIBERAL
Winnipeg South
LIBERAL
Winnipeg South Centre
LIBERAL
Saskatchewan
FORECAST
Battlefords—Lloydminster
CONSERVATIVE
Cypress Hills—Grasslands
CONSERVATIVE
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
CONSERVATIVE
Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek
CONSERVATIVE
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan
CONSERVATIVE
Prince Albert
CONSERVATIVE
Regina—Lewvan
NDP
Regina—Qu'Appelle
CONSERVATIVE
Regina—Wascana
LIBERAL
Saskatoon—Grasswood
CONSERVATIVE
Saskatoon—University
CONSERVATIVE
Saskatoon West
NDP
Souris—Moose Mountain
CONSERVATIVE
Yorkton—Melville
CONSERVATIVE
Alberta
FORECAST
Banff—Airdrie
CONSERVATIVE
Battle River—Crowfoot
CONSERVATIVE
Bow River
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Centre
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Confederation
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Forest Lawn
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Heritage
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Midnapore
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Nose Hill
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Rocky Ridge
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Shepard
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Signal Hill
CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Skyview
CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Centre
CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Griesbach
CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Manning
CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Mill Woods
CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Riverbend
CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Strathcona
NDP
Edmonton West
CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton—Wetaskiwin
CONSERVATIVE
Foothills
CONSERVATIVE
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
CONSERVATIVE
Grande Prairie–Mackenzie
CONSERVATIVE
Lakeland
CONSERVATIVE
Lethbridge
CONSERVATIVE
Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner
CONSERVATIVE
Peace River—Westlock
CONSERVATIVE
Red Deer—Mountain View
CONSERVATIVE
Red Deer–Lacombe
CONSERVATIVE
St. Albert—Edmonton
CONSERVATIVE
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan
CONSERVATIVE
Sturgeon River–Parkland
CONSERVATIVE
Yellowhead
CONSERVATIVE
British Columbia
FORECAST
Abbotsford
CONSERVATIVE
Burnaby North—Seymour
LIBERAL
Burnaby South
NDP
Cariboo—Prince George
CONSERVATIVE
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola
CONSERVATIVE
Chilliwack—Hope
CONSERVATIVE
Cloverdale—Langley City
CONSERVATIVE
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
CONSERVATIVE
Courtenay—Alberni
NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
NDP
Delta
CONSERVATIVE
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke
NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells
CONSERVATIVE
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
CONSERVATIVE
Kelowna—Lake Country
CONSERVATIVE
Kootenay—Columbia
CONSERVATIVE
Langley—Aldergrove
CONSERVATIVE
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
CONSERVATIVE
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
NDP
New Westminster—Burnaby
NDP
North Island–Powell River
NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap
CONSERVATIVE
North Vancouver
LIBERAL
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
CONSERVATIVE
Port Moody—Coquitlam
CONSERVATIVE
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies
CONSERVATIVE
Richmond Centre
CONSERVATIVE
Saanich—Gulf Islands
GREEN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay
NDP
South Surrey—White Rock
CONSERVATIVE
Steveston—Richmond East
CONSERVATIVE
Surrey Centre
NDP
Surrey—Newton
LIBERAL
Vancouver Centre
LIBERAL
Vancouver East
NDP
Vancouver Granville
LIBERAL
Vancouver Kingsway
NDP
Vancouver Quadra
LIBERAL
Vancouver South
LIBERAL
Victoria
NDP
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
LIBERAL
Territories
FORECAST
Yukon
LIBERAL
Northwest Territories
NDP
Nunavut
LIBERAL