Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Proposed riding boundaries map (coloured in by 2011 result)

Proposed riding boundaries coloured in by 2011 result

Last week, a new company called released their data in looking at the proposed riding boundaries and taking a look at the 2008 and 2011 federal election on the proposed map. In August, the final provinces came out with their proposed maps for the ongoing redistribution process which will ad 30 seats to the House of Commons. did the math and now we know how the results of the last election will play out on the new map. Even though the map isn't finalized, it's nice to see how it will play out and which parties are the winners and losers.

As it turns out, and as expected, the Tories are the big winners. The boundary proposal would give them an extra 25 seats. They would gain 13 seats in Ontario, 6 in Alberta, 7 in BC and 1 in Newfoundland while they would actually lose a seat in Quebec, and 2 in Saskatchewan. The NDP would also gain seats, but only a net gain of 8; 5 in Quebec, 2 in Ontario, 2 in Saskatchewan, 1 in Manitoba and a loss of 2 in BC. The Liberals would be the big losers. Despite the House of Commons increasing in seats, the proposed boundaries would result in the Liberals actually losing seats. They would lose 1 seat in Newfoundland, and 1 in Manitoba for a net loss of 2. The BQ would also lose 25% of their seats, going down from 4 to 3.

Here are where the party changes would happen by province:

British Columbia

BC is set to gain 6 seats in the House of Commons, which puts them at 42 seats. Not only do the Tories gain all eight of these new seats, the boundary changes give them an extra 2 at the expense of the NDP.

South Cowichan—Juan de Fuca
NDP +1
This is the brand new riding on Vancouver Island. When it comes to the new boundaries in BC, Vancouver Island is the only glimmer of hope for the party. This new riding is being created out of two current NDP ridings: Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca and Nanaimo—Cowichan. This has created a new NDP seat, but one where they would have only won by 115 votes. Another glimmer of hope for the NDP on the island is the riding of Nanaimo—Alberni which became considerably more friendly for them. The NDP would have lost the riding by just 1270 votes.

South Okanagan—West Kootenay
Conservatives +1, NDP -1
This riding would be the successor riding to the present riding of British Columbia Southern Interior. This riding is currently held by the NDP, but thanks to redistribution, the riding becomes a Conservative seat. The riding loses some strong NDP areas in its southeastern corner around Nelson, and gains some ultra-Conservative areas of Okanagan—Coquihalla around Penticton. The results turns this safe NDP seat into a seat where the Tories would have won by almost 3000 votes or about 5%.

Conservatives +1
Earlier I discussed how I figured this new riding in Vancouver would become a safe Tory seat. The numbers tell us however that while the Tories would have won this seat in 2011, it would have been a very close 3 way race. The NDP as it turns out would have only lost by 1654 votes. This is thanks in part to strong NDP areas of Vancouver Kingsway and Vancouver East joining the riding. However, they are not enough to compensate for the strong Tory areas coming in from Vancouver Quadra and Vancouver South.

Burnaby North—Seymour
Conservatives +1
This is a new riding that takes in parts of the NDP held riding of Burnaby—Douglas and the Tory held riding of Vancouver North. While most of the riding comes from Bunaby—Douglas, the Seymour area over Vancouver North is a strong Conservative area, while the north end of Burnaby is more evenly split between the two parties. The result gives the Tories a 4317 vote edge in this riding, or nearly 10% of the vote.

Port Moody—Coquitlam
Conservatives +1, NDP -1
This riding comes mostly out of the existing riding of New Westminster—Coquitlam. However, that riding is losing New Westminster, which is a strong NDP area. The riding was already a close one with New Westminster, and the loss of that region would make the riding NDP by just 65 votes. But, thanks to a small Conservative slice of Port Coquitlam, this riding would turn Tory blue by just 361 votes. A toss up yes, but still a Tory gain from the current map.

Conservatives +2, NDP -1
Surrey is getting one new riding after redistribution, and instead of being an even 2-2 split as the case is now, the Tories would double their seat total in the city, reducing the NDP to 1. The NDP would be left with the riding of West Surrey—Whalley which is the successor riding to Surrey North which they currently hold. The other current NDP held seat is Newton—North Delta which was a 3 way race in the last election and is being split into 3 different ridings. The NDP part of the riding is being given to the riding of Delta which is outside of Surrey entirely. The rest of Delta is Conservative, and adding North Delta would not change it. The Liberal part of the riding is being added to the West Surrey—Whalley riding which is an NDP riding anyways. Finally, the Tory part of the riding is being given to the super safe Tory seat of South Surrey—White Rock. This all results in a net loss for the NDP. The two Conservative ridings in Surrey are morphing into 4 ridings which are also being cut out of the two NDP ridings and also nearby Langley, which is also a safe Tory area. The resulting ridings would be North Surrey—Guildford (out of parts of North Surrey and Fleetwood—Port Kells), Surrey Centre (mostly out of Fleetwood—Port Kells), Langley—Cloverdale (out of parts of Fleetwood—Port Kells, South Surrey—White Rock and Langley) and Surrey—White Rock which gains part of Newton—North Delta but also loses some territory to Langley—Cloverdale. Out of these new ridings, Surrey Centre becomes the lowest hanging fruit for the NDP, even though it is mostly carved out of the currently Tory held seat of Fleetwood—Port Kells. However, it would mostly consist of the East Newton area of the city which the NDP does well in. Richmond East & Delta
Conservatives +1This region south of Vancouver is set to gain one extra seat as Delta—Richmond East is splitting into 2 ridings. This riding is a very Conservative to begin with. If a safe Tory seat splits into two, that means two safe Tory seats. Delta is gaining some NDP areas in North Delta from Newton—North Delta, however that is not enough to even make the seat competitive.

Conservatives +6
At present, every seat except one in Alberta is held by the Tories. That one opposition seat, Edmonton—Strathcona is held by the NDP. The redistribution process does that carve up that riding, but does not make any other parts of the province land in opposition territory, at least not with the 2011 election results. As a result, Alberta is getting six more ridings, all of them would have gone Tory last election.

Saskatchewan is not seeing an increase in ridings, however the boundary commission has decided to rectify the issue with current gerrymandered “rurban” ridings that have benefited the Conservatives the last few election cycles. At present, there are 8 rurban ridings in the province that cut up the two major cities of Saskatoon and Region into pizza slices extending into the rural areas surrounding them. This has caused the NDP leaning central parts of those cities to be dwarfed by the Conservative leaning suburban and rural parts that dominate most of those eight ridings. Only one of those eight ridings is held by an opposition MP, with Wascana going Liberal thanks to the personal popularity of MP Ralph Goodale. The commission proposed giving each city 2 more urban oriented ridings, which would cause the province to give the NDP two seats (up from none), at the expense of the Conservatives.

NDP +1, Conservatives -1
Regina is set to get two strictly urban ridings, Wascana (which loses most of its rural territory) and the new riding of Regina—Lewvan, which would consist of the western half of the city. Under the new boundaries, Wascana would remain a Liberal seat, while Regina—Lewvan would become an NDP seat. Regina—Lewvan takes in some strong NDP areas of Palliser with some mixed territory from Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre. The result would give the NDP a 1005 vote victory.

Saskatoon Centre—University
NDP +1, Conservatives -1
Saskatoon is also set to get two urban ridings, Saskatoon Centre—University and Saskatoon West. Saskatoon Centre—University would go NDP with 2011's results, while the more suburbam Saskatoon West would still go Conservative. Saskatoon Centre takes in the more NDP-friendly central part of the city, which is mostly taken from the riding of Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar. But, it also takes in some more Tory-leaning suburban areas in the northeast part of the city from Saskatoon—Humbold. The result is a seat that would have narrowly gone NDP in 2011, by a margin of 204 votes. Saskatoon West would also be an NDP target though, as they would have narrowly lost the riding by 1639 votes.

NDP +1,
Manitoba would not get any new ridings either. However, the new boundaries of Winnipeg North would give the NDP an extra seat in the province to the expense of the Liberals. Winnipeg North is a traditional NDP seat that the Liberals have recently picked up thanks to the popularity of its MP, Kevin Lamoureux. Even having said that though, Lamoureux only won the riding by 44 votes in 2011. Any adjustment to his riding is surely going to put his narrow victory in jeopardy. The riding as it is, is very polarized between east and west. The commission proposes taking a small part of the Liberal western part of the riding (in the Maples) and giving it to the neighbouring riding of Kildonan—St. Paul. This alone would be enough to flip the riding to the NDP. However, the commission also proposes adding part of Kildonan—St. Paul (Garden City, Jefferson & Seven Oaks) to the riding. While this area went Tory in 2011, the Liberals finished third behind the NDP and therefore would not be enough to compensate for the loss of part of the small Liberal part of the riding being lost. All these changes would not only give the NDP a victory in this riding, but the Liberals would drop to third, 7.6% behind.


Ontario is set to gain 15 new ridings with redistribution. Out of those 15 ridings, the Tories would have won a net of 13 in the last election on the proposed boundaries while the NDP would have gained a net of two.

Welland—Fort Erie
Conservatives +1, NDP -1
This is the successor riding to the NDP-held riding of Welland. However, growth in the Niagara Region has forced the riding of Welland to change its borders, meaning that the NDP would lose its seemingly perfectly tailored riding. The problem for the NDP is that no area outside of the riding seems to have much history with the party, so, for the riding to change its boundaries at all is bad news for them. With its current boundaries, the NDP won Welland by about 1000 votes. However, the proposed boundaries add Fort Erie to the riding, and Fort Erie voted heavily Conservative in 2011. This addition is enough to flip the riding and give it to the Tories by a margin of 2095 votes.

NDP +1, Conservatives -1
The current riding of Bramalea—Gore—Malton has become much too large, and needs to shrink. The boundary commission decided to removed all of Bramalea and some of Malton from the riding, creating the new riding of Brampton—Gore. This change would have caused the riding to go NDP if you look at the 2011 numbers. That's because of the personal strength of the NDP candidate in the riding, Jagmeet Singh who had narrowly lost the riding. He was popular in the Sikh community in the riding which dominates the Gore and Malton parts of the riding. Without Conservative leaning Bramalea, he would have won the riding by 2363 votes. Singh went on to win the riding provincially in last Fall's provincial election. Unless the NDP can run a popular candidate like him again, this may not necessarily be an “NDP riding”.

Don Valley East
Liberals +1, Conservatives -1
One of the few gains the Liberals would have under the proposed boundaries is in this riding. The proposed riding of Don Valley East is set to gain some strong Liberal areas from Don Valley West such as the Flemingdon Park neighbourhood. This change would turn a narrow 870 vote loss in 2011 into a 1221 vote victory.

St. Paul's
NDP +1, Liberals -1
With the huge condo boom in neighbouring Trinity—Spandina, the boundary commission was forced to lump off a large part of that NDP-held riding and add it to St. Paul's. To compensate for this, the riding lost a large chunk of territory in its eastern end. This area also happened to be a Strong Liberal and NDP-dead zone. While the NDP still finished third in the western part of St. Paul's, it wasn't as bad as in the eastern part. Throw in a few polls from NDP Davenport, and the NDP would have won the new St. Paul's by 1335 votes.

Toronto Centre
NDP +1, Liberals -1
The condo boom seen in Trinity—Spadina is also happening in Toronto Centre, forcing that riding to shed some of its territory as well. The commission removed the well-off Liberal leaning northern half of the riding where the NDP finished in a distant 2nd. This still wouldn't have been enough for the riding to go NDP however, but with the commission adding a number of polls from Trinity—Spadina, the NDP would have won this new riding- but by just 195 votes.

Mount Pleasant
Liberals +1
So, with all those well-off Liberal leaning areas being shed from St. Paul's and from Toronto Centre, a new riding had to be created to house them. The commission put those areas and a small part of Don Valley West and put it in the new riding of Mount Pleasant. This riding would be a fairly safe Liberal seat, which they would have won by 5440 votes over the Tories.

Conservatives +1, Liberals -1
Under the proposed redistribution, the only Liberal seat left in York Region would be evaporated. The seat of Markham—Unionville was won by the Liberals by just 1700 votes. The boundary commission has decided to divide this riding up. Most of Markham—Unionville will actually find itself in the new riding of Markham, except for the Unionville area, which will continue to be in a riding called Markham—Unionville, but will also include a large swath of Markham north of the present riding. Most of the Liberal neighbourhoods in Markham—Unionville will find themselves in the new riding of Markham. Without Unionville, this riding would have gone Liberal easily. However, the commission also added a large part of the Thornhill riding to Markham. Thornhill has become very Conservative, and this new territory would throw the riding into Conservative hands by a 944 vote margin.

Scarborough East
Liberals +1
The boundary commission has decided to do away with the Pickering—Scarborough East riding which was a strange riding that straddled the Toronto-Pickering border. This decision has meant that the old half riding that stuck out of the city has moved entirely within the city. The Scarborough half of the Pickering—Scarborough East riding voted Liberal in 2011, creating the base of this new riding. Parts of Scarborough—Rouge River and Scarborough—Guildwood were also added to the riding, but while the Liberals finished 2nd in both of those areas (to the NDP and Conservatives respectively), it was not enough to alter their lead. In total, the Liberals would have won this seat by 1286 votes.

New ridings resulting in Conservative gains
Conservatives +13
The rest of the Tory gains came from new ridings being created in their favour in fast growing suburban areas. The Tories gained 13 such ridings:
  • Splitting of Nepean—Carleton into Nepean and Nepean—Carleton
  • Splitting of Ancaster—Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale into Ancaster and Waterdown—Glanbrook
  • Splitting of Halton into Milton and Halton
  • Creation of Kitchener South—North Dumfries—Brant from Brant, Cambridge and Kitchener—Conestoga
  • Creation of Mississauga Centre from Missississauga—Erindale, Mississauga East—Cooksville and from Mississsauga—Brampton South
  • Splitting of Brampton West into Brampton South and Brampton West
  • Splitting of Brampton—Springdale into Brampton North and Brampton Centre
  • Creation of Don Valley North from Don Valley East and Willowdale
  • Splitting of Oak Ridges—Markham into Oak Ridges, Aurora—Richmond Hill and into Markham—Stouffville (+2)
  • Splitting of Markham—Unionville into Markham and Markham—Unionville. (See also Markham—Unionville above, as this is a Liberal riding being split into two Tory ones)
  • Splitting of Barrie in Barrie North and Barrie South
  • Creation of Kawartha Lakes—Port Hope—Cobourg from Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock and from Northumberland—Quinte West.

Quebec will be gaining three seats with redistribution. The NDP, which swept the province in 2011 has the most to gain from the proposed map. It would gain five seats, taking a BQ and a Tory seat along with the three new ridings.

NDP +1, Liberals -1
This riding is the successor to the Liberal held riding of Saint-Leonard—Saint-Michel. However, the riding becomes very different. Gone is the heavily Liberal neighbourhood of Saint-Michel and added is some areas from Hochelaga that went heavily NDP in 2011. That area, around Maisonneuve Parc is a Liberal dead zone, meaning the Liberals gain nothing from its inclusion. A safe-ish Liberal seat turns into an NDP seat by 3865 votes.

NDP +1, BQ -1
From the looks of the map, this is one of two new ridings that could claim to be the new seat added to the Island of Montreal. It makes an NDP seat out of an area in mid-Montreal that had none. The riding takes in the northern part of Ahuntsic, and lumps it in with Saint-Michel and part of Saint-Leonard. The area taken from Ahuntsic (and a small part of Papineau) voted BQ in 2011, while the area taken from Saint-Leonard—Saint-Michel voted heavily Liberal. But because the Liberals did terrible in northern Ahuntsic, and the BQ even worse in Saint-Leonard—Saint-Michel, the NDP would have won the riding by coming in 2nd in both areas. The results would have been a tight 3 way race however, with the NDP edging out the Liberals by just 920 votes and the BQ by 1462 votes. The BQ's only seat on the island was in Ahuntsic, which is being split between Maurice-Richard, George-Etienne-Cartier and Bourassa. This split eliminated Ahuntsic riding from the map, and with in the only BQ riding in Montreal. And since Maurice-Richard took the largest amount of voters with it, I have credited this riding as the one the BQ has lost due to redistribution.

Liberals +1
This is the other riding in Montreal that can make the case for being brand new. The proposed riding straddles the current Ahuntsic / Saint-Laurent—Cartierville riding border, taking nearly equal parts from each. The southern end of Ahuntsic is the Liberal end of that riding, while Cartierville and northern Saint-Laurent (taken from Saint-Laurent—Cartierville) is also a very Liberal area. The result of this new riding means the Liberals gain a seat in the area to make up for the lost seat of Saint-Leonard.

NDP +1
With the population boom in Laval comes the new riding of Sainte-Rose on the north side of the city. No longer will Laval have a riding crossing its northern border onto the north shore (Marc-Aurele-Fortin). The NDP swept the city in 2011, meaning that any new riding would have also gone NDP, including Sainte-Rose.

Gaspe—Les Iles
NDP -1
With the population decline in Eastern Quebec, the commission decided to eliminate a riding. The consequence of that is the existing ridings had to get bigger. The NDP held riding of Gaspesie—Iles-de-la-Madeline had to take in half of the riding of Haute-Gaspesie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapedia. The election in Gaspesie—Iles-de-la-Madeleine was already a close one between the NDP and the BQ. The race in Haute-Gaspesie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapedia was more between the Liberals and the Bloc however, with the NDP in a distant third. With the Bloc doing well in both parts of this new riding, they would have beaten the NDP by 2772 votes. This in effect eliminated the NDP seat in the Gaspesie, and moves over the lone BQ riding in the area.

NDP +1, Conservatives -1
Surprisingly enough, the proposed boundaries would give the NDP a seat in the ultra-Conservative region of Chaudiere-Appalaches. This region is where the Tories won four of their five seats in the province in 2011. Levis takes in areas from Levis—Bellechasse and from Lotbiniere—Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere that went NDP in 2011, despite their ridings going Tory. The result is an NDP win 1259 votes.

NDP +1
Soulanges is the name of a new riding in the southwestern corner of Quebec, created as the result of the growth in population in the area southwest of Montreal. The riding takes in parts of two NDP held ridings, Beauharnois—Salaberry and from Vaudreuil—Soulanges.

NDP +1
One new riding is being created in Western Quebec, an area where all three seats had already gone NDP. That means, no matter which of the four new ridings you consider to be the new one, it too would have gone NDP. For the record, it looks like the new riding might be that of “Outaouais” a riding made up of the downtown core of Gatineau and Hull.

Atlantic Canada
Conservatives +1, Liberals -1
There were no additions or subtractions to any of the seat totals for any of Canada's four Atlantic provinces. In fact one province, PEI had no boundary changes at all. There was however one riding that would have switched parties thanks to the new boundaries. That riding would have been Avalon, in Newfoundland. Avalon is losing a large chunk of Liberal territory (as I mentioned in my analysis of Newfoundland's redistribution). The race in Avalon was close enough in 2011 that if you take out enough Liberal territory, the riding would flip colours. Under the new boundaries, the Tories would have won the seat by 1254 votes.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Quebec 2012 election results

2012 Election 
Preliminary results with 100% of polls reporting

Party Leader Seats Popular Vote %
Parti Quebecois Pauline Marois 54 1,393,540 31.94
Liberal Jean Charest 50 1,361,618 31.21
C.A.Q. Francois Legault 19 1,180,758 27.06
Quebec Solidaire Francoise David &
Amir Khadir
2 263,233 6.03
Option Nationale Jean-Martin Aussant 0 82,857 1.90
Green Claude Sabourin 0 43,517 1.00
Conservative Luc Harvey 0 7,709 0.18
Constituant Coalition Marc Fafard 0 5,289 0.12
Parti Nul Renaud Blais 0 2,746 0.06
Autonomist Team Guy Boivin 0 2,184 0.05
Citizens' Union Alexis St-Gelais 0 2,093 0.05
Middle Class Party Jean Lavoie 0 2,057 0.05
Marxist-Leninist Pierre Chenier 0 1,988 0.05
Unite Nationale Paul Biron 0 1,244 0.03
P.I. Michel Lepage 0 1,233 0.03
Bloc Pot Hugo St-Onge 0 415 0.01
Q.-R.D. Robert Genesse 0 257 0.01
Parti Equitable Yvan Rodrigue 0 126 0.00
Independents N/A 0 11,861 0.27

Turnout: 75%
Seat %
Popular vote %

Quebec election - final prediction and mini guide

Final projection

It is election day in Quebec, and it is time for my final prediction. If the polls are to believed, this race is going to be a three way between the separatist Parti Quebecois, the governing Liberals and the upstart centre-right Coalition Avenir du Quebec. For the last week or so of the campaign though, it looks like the PQ will win the election. But the question will be if they get a majority, and whether or not the CAQ can surpass the Liberals to form opposition.

For my final prediction, I analyzed the regional breakdowns of the final Leger Poll as well as the mostrecent Forum Research poll I had available to me (they came out with a new one just a few hours ago, which I will have to ignore). I have also looked at a number of individual riding polls, riding history, and a little gut instinct to come up with my numbers. And the conclusion I came to is that the PQ will indeed win a majority government, but by just 2 seats. The Liberals will narrowly get official opposition with 33 seats, which would be their worst showing since 1976. Also, the Liberals are set to get a record low in terms of share of popular vote. Anything less than 33% of the vote will do that, and they have been polling lower than 30% routinely. While the PQ may win the election, they will probably go down in their vote share as well from the previous election, and votes are likely to be siphoned off to the CAQ. 

Here are my riding by riding numbers:
(Ridings projected to be decided by less than 3% of the vote are shaded in grey)
Riding PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Oth Winning candidate
36 24 5 2 2 - Elizabeth Larouche
Abitibi-Ouest 14 49 26 8 - 3 - Francois Gendron
Acadie 54 16 18 11 - 1 - Christine St-Pierre
Anou—Louis-Riel 35 30 22 10 - 2 1 Lise Theriault
37 25 5 4 2 - Roland Richer
29 26 34 5 3 2 1 Sylvie Roy
Beauce-Nord 24 7 57 5 3 1 3 Andre Spenard
34 9 51 4 - 1 1 Richard Savoie
Beauharnois 18 43 26 5 3 3 2 Guy Leclair
30 14 42 6 - - 3 Christian Levesque
41 6 4 2 0 Francois Benjamin
Bertrand 19 42 27 6 4 2 0 Claude Cousineau
38 5 4 2 0 Daniel Ratthe
45 13 3 - 2 - Sylvain Roy
Borduas 17 48 20 7 4 3 1 Pierre Duchesne
Bourassa-Sauve 44 22 22 9 2 1 - Rita de Santis
Bourget 14 43 23 10 5 3 2 Maka Kotto
32 26 27 6 4 2 3 Pierre Paradis
Chambly 16 41 30 6 4 2 1 Bertrand St-Arnaud
Champlain 20
37 5 - 2 1 Pierre Jackson
Chapleau 41 20 28 5 5 1 0 Marc Carriere
32 21 37 6 - 1 3 Denise Trudel
Charlevoix—Cote-de-Beaupre 24 41 27 5 - 2 1 Pauline Marois
34 25 5 4 2 1 Maryse Perreault
Chauveau 24 17 49 6 - 1 3 Gerard Deltell
Chicoutimi 24
23 7 - 2 0 Stephane Bedard
Chomedey 50 19 21 5 3 1 1 Guy Ouellette
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere 21 17 53 6 2 - 1 Marc Picard
Cote-du-Sud 40 18 35 5 - 1 1 Robert Mortin
Cremazie 24 39 19 12 4 2 - Diane De Courcy
D'Arcy-McGee 75 3 14 7 - - 1 Lawrence Bergman
17 40 31 5 5 2 - Daniel Goyer
32 7 - 2 2 Sebastien Schneeberger
Dubuc 24 39 27 6 - 3 1 Jean-Marie Claveau
Duplessis 20 47 24 6 - 2 1 Lorraine Richard
34 24 5 4 2 1 Francois-Gycelain Rocque
28 52 14 4 - 2 - Gaetan Lelievre
Gatineau 41 21 23 7 5 2 1 Stephanie Vallee
9 36 12 39 4 - 0 Francoise David
Granby 21 25 44 7 - 1 2 Francois Bonnardel
35 5 4 2 0 Helene Daneault
Hochelaga—Maisonneuve 5 48 19 18 5 3 2 Carole Poirier
Hull 34 25 17 12 7 2 3 Maryse Gaudreault
31 21 36 6 3 1 2 Claire Isabelle
Iberville 26 38 26 4 4 2 - Marie Bouille
39 46 9 4 - 2 - Jeannie Richard
Jacques-Cartier 64 4 15 7 9 0 1 Geoffrey Kelley
25 28 33 9 - 2 3 Johanne Lapointe
Jeanne-Mance—Viger 58 10 22 8 - 1 1 Filomena Rotiroti
Jean-Talon 40 27 23 7 - 2 1 Yves Bolduc
37 6 - 2 1 Stephane Legault
Joliette 14 39 35 8 - 2 2 Veronique Hivon
Jonquiere 18 46 26 6 - 2 2 Sylvain Gaudreault
Labelle 14 47 26 6 4 3 - Sylvain Page
Lac-Saint-Jean 15 54 19 5 3 3 1 Alexandre Clouthier
LaFontaine 53 14 18 8 4 1 2 Marc Tanguay
La Peltrie 28 15 49 6 - 1 1 Eric Caire
La Piniere 44 21 22 6 4 1 2 Fatima Houda-Pepin
Laporte 35 32 23 7 - 2 1 Nicole Menard
La Prairie
23 37 27 5 3 2 2 Pierre Langlois
44 6 4 2 - Francois Legault
31 11 19 6 2 2 Badiona Bazin
36 23 6 4 2 0 Leo Bureau-Blouin
Laviolette 43 21 28 6 - 1 1 Julie Boulet
29 18 39 7 - 1 6 Christian Dube
21 38 6 - - - Martin Caron
Louis-Hebert 37 25 29 4 - 2 3 Sam Hamad
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 54 16 19 9 - 1 1 Robert Poeti
Marie-Victorin 13
24 7 4 3 1 Bernard Drainville
Marquette 42 21 21 8 7 1 - Francois Ouimet
27 37 5 1 2 2 Jean Damphousse
Masson 7 46 34 5 4 3 1 Diane Hamelin
Matane—Matapedia 19 55 15 5 2 3 1 Pascal Berube
30 33 22 7 - 2 1 Gloriane Blais
Mercier 5 29 15 44 5 2 - Amir Khadir
33 23 5 4 2 1 Robert Carrier
11 40 41 5 - 2 1 Sylvie d'Amours
5 4 2 1 Monique Richard
26 22 44 4 - 1 3 Michelyne St-Laurent
Mont-Royal 60 7 16 10 6 0 1 Pierre Arcand
Nelligan 57 9 18 7 7 1 1 Yolande James
29 - - 28 1 Donald Martel
Notre-Dame-de-Grace 53 8 15 7 16 0 1 Kathleen Weil
36 29 21 8 4 2 0 Pierre Reid
Outremont 40 22 17 18 - 1 2 Raymond Bachand
34 25 8 - 2 2 Jean-Francois Primeau
Pointe-aux-Trembles 9 53 24 9 - 3 2 Nicole Leger
Pontiac 53 11 21 7 6 1 1 Charlotte L'Ecuyer
26 17 49 6 - 1 1 Jacques Marcotte
Rene-Levesque 12
27 6 - 3 - Marjolain Dufour
17 41 34 6 - 2 - Scott McKay
Richelieu 21 48 21 7 - 3 - Elaine Zakaib
32 36 21 6 3 2 0 Etienne-Alexis Boucher
Rimouski 21 48 19 7 1 3 1 Irvin Pelletier
32 36 24 4 2 1 1 Michel Lagace
Robert-Baldwin 65 3 17 8 6 0 1 Pierre Marsan
Roberval 27 41 25 5 - 2 - Denis Trottier
Rosemont 16 46 19 14 - 3 2 Jean-Francois Lisee
Rousseau 16 49 24 7 - 3 1 Nicolas Marceau
30 9 2 2 - Gilles Chapadeau
31 41 16 6 3 2 1 Rejean Hebert
34 17 13 - 2 1 Sophie Stanke
Saint-Hyacinthe 23 39 26 7 - 2 3 Emilien Pelletier
Saint-Jean 24 39 26 6 - 2 3 Dave Turcotte
13 41 35 5 4 2 - Gilles Robert
Saint-Laurent 47 13 21 11 6 1 1 Jean-Marc Fournier
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques 12 43 18 22 - 2 3 Daniel Breton
Saint-Maurice 24 41 27 5 - 2 1 Luc Trudel
27 36 27 7 - 2 1 Suzanne Proulx
Sanguinet 14 45 31 5 - 3 2 Alain Therrien
36 13 9 4 2 1 Serge Cardin
31 30 30 6 - 2 1 Lucie Charlebois
Taillon 17 42 25 7 4 3 2 Marie Malavoy
Taschereau 24 38 20 14 - 2 2 Agnes Maltais
10 42 35 6 4 3 0 Mathieu Traversy
30 35
8 - 2 2 Djemila Benhabib
Ungava 21 41 27 9 - 2 - Luc Ferland
Vachon 9 54 20 8 4 4 1 Martine Ouellet
Vanier-Les Rivieres
29 19 43 6 - 1 2 Sylvain Levesque
Vaudreuil 38 27 22 5 5 2 1 Yvon Marcoux
Vercheres 10 49 31 6 - 3 1 Stephane Bergeron
32 32 16 11 6 2 1 Henri-Francois Gautrin
Viau 43 21 19 11 5 1 - Emmanuel Dubourg
34 26 7 - 2 1 Linda Tousignant
Westmount—Saint-Louis 60 6 16 9 8 0 1 Jacques Chagnon


"The Toss ups"
There are a lot of toss up ridings, so I will only touch up on the few that I have figured will have the top two parties within 3%. But, with so many variables and likely scenarios in place, these are really just a  random set of "toss ups":

This Montreal suburban riding has a CAQ incumbent, which one might think would automatically make this a likely CAQ win, but the incumbent, Daniel Ratthe was elected as a PQiste and then switched parties. It wasn't the worst decision for Ratthe though, as this riding went for the CAQ's predecessor the ADQ by 9 points in 2007. And 2012 is looking a lot like 2007. And so, I picked Ratthe to win this race.

This Mauricie riding went ADQ in 2007 by 14 points. However, the MNA crossed the aisle to join the Liberals and was subsequently defeated by the PQ in 2008. Even without an incumbent, the ADQ did fairly well getting 22% of the vote that election. I expect them to pick this up.

Drummond-Bois Francs
This Central Quebec riding is brand new, having been created out of Drummond and Richmond. The redistributed results from show the Liberals won 40%, the PQ with 32% and the ADQ with 25%. However, there is no incumbent running in this riding, and the CAQ candidate is a former ADQ MNA. With the right swing, the CAQ should pick up this seat.

Now to the Island of Montreal, one of the more exciting races will be to see if Quebec Solidaire co-leader Francoise David will be able to win the party's second riding. With the way the party is polling on the island, they should be able to pick this seat up. And since they are targeting this seat, they are likely to win this by even more than I projected.

This is another suburban Montreal riding that will be one to watch. It is an open seat that the PQ won by just 400 votes last election. However, the CAQ has a shot at winning the seat, which the ADQ won by 9 points in 2007. However, their MNA from that election is running for the Liberals. Despite that, this will be a CAQ-PQ race that I think the CAQ will prevail in.

The south shore will also see a lot of fierce battles, including this one in Laporte. The Liberals are in danger of losing this seat which they have held since 1981.This area has been trending to the PQ over the years, and this year might be the year they finally win it back. However, I don't think the 16 point deficit they face will be enough to pick it up. 

This riding on the Island of Montreal is usually a safe Liberal seat. However, the PQ did manage to win the riding in a 2004 by-election, only to lose it again in the 2007 general. With the Liberals really tanking in Montreal though, I feel the PQ should be able to pick this seat up.

This is another new riding, located in the conservative Chaudiere-Appalaches region. The redistributed results from 2008 showed the Liberals getting 48% of the votes here and the ADQ in second with 29%. Will that be enough of a deficit for the CAQ to over come? I think so. 

This is another new riding, nestled in the Eastern Townships on the US border. The Liberals would have won this seat over the PQ by 8 points according to the redistributed results from 2008. The area has never voted for the PQ before, however, but 8 points is not much to overcome. I believe the PQ will make history in this riding by winning it for the first time ever.

The Liberal incumbent is facing off against former BQ MP Robert Carrier who is running for the PQ in this Laval riding. Redistribution made this seat safer for the Liberals, but at this point no gerrymandering would be possible to help the Liberals in some areas. I believe Carrier should be able to win this seat.

This exurban riding west of Montreal seems like prime territory for the CAQ. The ADQ won the seat by 10 points in 2007, only to lose in 2008 by 25%. However, I think the CAQ should be able to pick this off from the PQ.

This is another must-watch riding located on the south shore of the St. Lawrence half way between Montreal and Quebec City. This is a must watch race because it is the only realistic chance for the Option Nationale party to win a seat. Their leader, Jean-Martin Aussant is running in the riding and he also happens to be the incumbent MNA, having previously been elected as a PQiste. The ON is an orthodox separatist party that sees their victory as being a mandate for sovereignty. A riding specific poll showed Aussant with a good chance of winning, being behind the CAQ by 3 points. With that poll being the only reliable way of knowing how much his support is, I have no choice but to base my prediction on it. I believe the CAQ will in it in a close one.

The Liberals may be the incumbent party in this northern Quebec riding, but the numbers suggest this race will be between the CAQ and the PQ. The Liberal incumbent is not even running again. The ADQ never won this seat, but their 17% showing in 2008 was very strong for the party in that election, especially with no incumbency advantage. The party only won 27% in the previous election. It's tough to say how well the CAQ will do here, so the safe bet is on the PQ.

Saint Henri-Sainte Anne
This Montreal riding has gone Liberal in every election since 1981, but the PQ have been inching ever closer to getting it back. Having only lost the seat by 9 points in 2008, they are poised to win the seat for the first time since 1976. It will be close, but I think with declining fortunes, the PQ will win here.

Possibly the most important race to watch will be Sherbrooke, the Premier's riding. Somehow Charest has been able to win this seat over and over again, even as a federal Tory in 1993, when he was one of only two members of his party to get elected. Charest has had many scares, and this election will be his toughest. There have been three riding polls conducted here, and he trailed in all three. He has been closing the gap though. The first poll showed a 15 point disadvantage. The second showed a 13 point defeat, while the most recent showed a 2 point loss. My model shows the race as a tie. I am not sure if the most recent poll is an outlier or indicative of a large swing, but I believe the safest bet here is to call a PQ win, with Premier Charest being ousted.

My model shows this riding to have all three major parties within 1 point of each other. The CAQ probably wont win the seat though, as the ADQ was never able to win the seat. The PQ only lost the riding by 9 points in 2008, so they have a good shot to win the seat. However, I think the Liberals will probably eke this one out.

On the surface, Verdun appears to be a safe Liberal seat. It has never voted for the PQ. However, this election may be very close there. The Liberals are down massively in Montreal, and their 13 point victory here in 2008 may get erased. The PQ are running a heavy weight in former MP Thiery St-Cyr. In the end though, history is on the Liberal's side, and they are the safe bet at retaining this seat.


To wrap up this post, I thought I would post two maps to help you out as you follow the election this evening. The first map just labels each riding, while the second map is the redistributed results of the 2008 election with the current riding boundaries. Enjoy!

Oh, and polls close at 8pm. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter as I comment on the election results.

Quebec's 125 ridings

2008 redistributed election results