Monday, August 13, 2012

Quebec 2012 election prediction map (August 13 edition)

Current projection map.
Over a week of the Quebec election campaign has passed, and the race has remained just as close as it was when it began. All the polls are showing that the Liberals (PLQ) and the Parti Quebecois (PQ) are for all intents and purposes tied with the most recent polls showing the two parties within 3% points of each other at the most. And, to make things interesting the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) party is coming on strong with one poll showing the new party within 5% of leading party.

While both the PQ and the PLQ are still neck and neck, they two parties have flipped their positions in the last week. At the beginning of the campaign, the Liberals were topping most of the polls, while the PQ now is. Even a narrow loss in the popular vote for the PQ is a good thing for that party, as due to Liberal vote concentration in Montreal, the PQ can still win (as was the case in 1998). However, the resurgence of the CAQ means this election may look more like the 2007 election where the electorate was split three ways, with the Liberals, the PQ and the predecessor to the CAQ, the Action Democratique du Quebec all received about 1/3 of the votes, and about 1/3 of the seats.

In making my prediction, I looked a lot at the 2007 election as a frame of reference. Where the ADQ did will in 2007 will probably be where the CAQ will do well in 2012. The polls seem to confirm this, showing the CAQ doing well in Quebec City, and in the Montreal suburbs. It can also be presumed the CAQ will do well in the most right wing part of the province, the Chaudiere-Appalaches region south of Quebec City.

For my first seat-by-seat projection of the campaign, I looked at three recent polls published by Leger, CROP and Forum Research. I took a look at their regional breakdowns and came up with averages to adust the redistributed figures from the 2008 election. For the seats that looked close, I took a further look at the riding history to come up with a plausible projection for those ridings. I also made further adjustments to other ridings where I saw fit. I will continue to make adjustments as the campaign goes on to factor in other things. An official list of candidates will also be important. I will be holding out on making projections for the new Option Nationale party and other parties for the time being (although, as you will see, columns exist for them.) I did make one projection for the ON in the riding where their leader is running.

As is always the case when I make projections, I rely on feedback just as much as I rely on polling data, so please let me know what you think is going on on the ground.

Here is my current seat by seat projection; All ridings shaded in grey are considered "too close to call" and appear as grey on the map. 

Riding
PLQ
PQ
CAQ
QS
PVQ
ON
Oth
Winning candidate
Abitibi-Est
37
40
16
4
2




Elizabeth Larouche
Abitibi-Ouest
20
54
19
7






Francois Gendron
Acadie
54
16
13
10
4




Christine St-Pierre
Anou—Louis-Riel
37
29
18
10
4




Lise Theriault
Argenteuil
34
34
21
4
4




Lise Proulx or Roland Richer
Arthabaska
30
29
31
4
3




Sylvie Roy
Beauce-Nord
25
11
55
3
3




Andre Spenard
Beauce-Sud
33
11
47
3
3




Richard Savoie
Beauharnois
24
41
28
4
3




Guy Leclair
Bellechasse
32
18
41
5






Christian Levesque
Berthier
17
40
33
5
4




Andre Villeneuve
Bertrand
25
45
18
5
4




Claude Cousineau
Blainville
23
34
37
3
4




Daniel Ratthe
Bonaventure
55
31
8
2
2




Damien Arsenault
Borduas
18
50
18
5
4




Pierre Duchesne
Bourassa-Sauve
48
22
18
9
2




Rita de Santis
Bourget
18
45
19
11
5




Maka Kotto
Brome—Missisquoi
34
28
25
5
4




Pierre Paradis
Chambly
22
38
32
4
4




Bertrand St-Arnaud
Champlain
25
38
29
4






Noella Champagne
Chapleau
46
23
19
4
5




Marc Carriere
Charlesbourg
34
21
35
4






Denise Trudel
Charlevoix—Cote-de-Beaupre
25
40
24
3
3




Pauline Marois
Chateauguay
35
31
27
3
4




Pierre Moreau
Chauveau
26
17
49
4






Gerard Deltell
Chicoutimi
33
43
15
6






Stephane Bedard
Chomedey
56
15
23
3
3




Guy Ouellette
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere
23
17
51
4
2




Marc Picard
Cote-du-Sud
40
20
31
4
3




Robert Mortin
Cremazie
27
40
15
12
4




Diane De Courcy
D'Arcy-McGee
76
3
9
7
5




Lawrence Bergman
Deux-Montagnes
22
37
33
3
5




Daniel Goyer
Drummond—Bois-Francs
27
34
30
5
2




Annie Jean
Dubuc
34
49
19
5






Jean-Marie Claveau
Duplessis
25
49
15
5
3




Lorraine Richard
Fabre
38
29
26
4
4




Gilles Ouillet
Gaspe
38
45
10
3






Gaetan Lelievre
Gatineau
50
27
17
6
5




Stephanie Vallee
Gouin
12
36
8
38
4
*


Francoise David
Granby
21
27
40
5
3




Francois Bonnardel
Groulx
25
33
33
3
4




Raymond Archambault or Helene Daneault
Hochelaga—Maisonneuve
8
49
16
19
5




Carole Poirier
Hull
42
30
13
11
7




Maryse Gaudreault
Huntingdon
32
25
34
5
3




Claire Isabelle
Iberville
29
43
26
4
4




Marie Bouille
Iles-de-la-Madeleine
35
46
4
3
3




Jeannie Richard
Jacques-Cartier
67
4
11
7
9




Geoffrey Kelley
Jean-Lesage
27
28
31
7






Johanne Lapointe
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
60
10
17
8
2




Filomena Rotiroti
Jean-Talon
41
26
19
5
5




Yves Bolduc
Johnson
21
36
33
5
3




Yves-Francois Blanchet
Joliette
20
43
27
7






Veronique Hivon
Jonquiere
29
45
18
5
1




Sylvain Gaudreault
Labelle
20
50
18
5
4




Sylvain Page
Lac-Saint-Jean
21
53
18
4
3




Alexandre Clouthier
LaFontaine
57
14
15
8
4




Marc Tanguay
La Peltrie
30
15
47
4






Eric Caire
La Piniere
51
19
25
4
4




Fatima Houda-Pepin
Laporte
39
28
24
5
5




Nicole Menard
La Prairie
32
36
29
3
3




Pierre Langlois
L'Assomption
17
38
38
4
4




Lizabel Nitoi or Francois Legault
Laurier—Dorion
33
32
7
19
6




Gerry Sklavounos
Laval-des-Rapides
35
33
24
4
4




Alain Paquet
Laviolette
48
25
19
5
1




Julie Boulet
Levis
32
19
38
6






Christian Dube
Lotbiniere—Frontenac
35
22
34
4
1




Laurent Lessard
Louis-Hebert
39
23
29
3
3




Sam Hamad
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
55
15
14
8
4




Robert Poeti
Marie-Victorin
19
45
26
5
4




Bernard Drainville
Marquette
44
21
17
8
7




Francois Ouimet
Maskinonge
32
31
29
4
1




Jean-Paul Diamond
Masson
12
45
37
3
4




Diane Hamelin
Matane—Matapedia
20
58
14
4
2




Pascal Berube
Megantic
32
37
21
6






Gloriane Blais
Mercier
8
29
11
44
5




Amir Khadir
Mille-Iles
39
29
25
4
4




Francine Charbonneau
Mirabel
16
38
40
3
4




Sylvie d'Amours
Montarville
31
30
31
4
4




Nicole Girard or Nathalie Roy
Montmorency
27
21
41
3
3




Michelyne St-Laurent
Mont-Royal
63
7
12
10
6




Pierre Arcand
Nelligan
60
9
14
7
7




Yolande James
Nicolet—Becancour
25
33
30
*
3
9


Gilles Mayrand
Notre-Dame-de-Grace
54
7
10
6
15




Kathleen Weil
Orford
37
32
19
6
4




Pierre Reid
Outremont
41
20
12
17
7




Raymond Bachand
Papineau
42
29
18
5
4




Alexandre Iraca
Pointe-aux-Trembles
12
52
20
9
4




Nicole Leger
Pontiac
58
15
13
6
6




Charlotte L'Ecuyer
Portneuf
31
20
40
5






Jacques Marcotte
Rene-Levesque
18
55
19
5






Marjolain Dufour
Repentigny
22
37
34
4
4




Scott McKay
Richelieu
21
49
18
5
4




Elaine Zakaib
Richmond
34
36
19
5
3




Etienne-Alexis Boucher
Rimouski
22
51
17
6






Irvin Pelletier
Riviere-du-Loup—Temiscouata
32
38
21
3
2




Michel Lagace
Robert-Baldwin
68
3
13
8
6




Pierre Marsan
Roberval
31
43
17
4






Denis Trottier
Rosemont
19
46
15
14
4




Jean-Francois Lisee
Rousseau
21
52
15
6
4




Nicolas Marceau
Rouyn-Noranda—Temiscamingue
32
34
21
8
2




Gilles Chapadeau
Saint-Francois
35
39
16
5






Rejean Hebert
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
35
33
12
12
5




Marguerite Blais
Saint-Hyacinthe
24
41
24
5
4




Emilien Pelletier
Saint-Jean
24
41
23
4
4




Dave Turcotte
Saint-Jerome
19
38
37
4
4




Gilles Robert
Saint-Laurent
51
13
17
11
6




Jean-Marc Fournier
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
15
42
13
21
6




Daniel Breton
Saint-Maurice
29
38
22
4
3




Luc Trudel
Sainte-Rose
32
34
28
5
2




Suzanne Proulx
Sanguinet
20
42
33
3
2




Alain Therrien
Sherbrooke
36
36
12
8
4




Jean Charest or Serge Cardin
Soulanges
36
33
21
4
4




Lucie Charlebois
Taillon
23
40
27
5
4




Marie Malavoy
Taschereau
28
37
17
9
5




Agnes Maltais
Terrebonne
16
40
37
5
4




Mathieu Traversy
Trois-Rivieres
31
33
26
5
2




Djemila Benhabib
Ungava
26
44
18
7
2




Luc Ferland
Vachon
14
53
22
6
4




Martine Ouellet
Vanier-Les Rivieres
31
19
41
4
2




Sylvain Levesque
Vaudreuil
44
24
24
3
5




Yvon Marcoux
Vercheres
15
45
32
4
4




Stephane Bergeron
Verdun
37
31
12
11
6




Henri-Francois Gautrin
Viau
46
21
15
11
5




Emmanuel Dubourg
Vimont
38
29
27
5
2




Jean Rousselle
Westmount—Saint-Louis
62
5
12
9
8




Jacques Chagnon

Projection chart:

Friday, August 3, 2012

Quebec 2012 election prediction map (August 3 edition)


Current prediction map
On Wednesday, Quebec Premier Jean Charest dropped the writs for the 40th Quebec provincial election which will be held on September 4th. Charest called the election to deal with the student protests that have crippled the province over the last few month. He is hoping on the votes of the “silent majority” of Quebeckers who oppose the student strikes- but have not been as loud as the students.

While public opinion may not be behind the students, it is not behind Jean Charest either. Most polls show Charest's Liberals neck and neck with the Parti Quebecois (PQ) in the low-30s. The PQ is struggling in their own right, but a tied election means more seats for them, due to having their support more spread out across the province. Both parties are being challenged by a new party, the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) which at one point in late 2011 topped the polls, but are now languishing in third place at around 20%. The CAQ will be the real wild card in this election. The party is generally centre-right and are only soft separatists. The party is in many ways the successor of the ADQ which voted to merge into the CAQ at the end of 2011.

My first prediction of the campaign will just be in map form. Further detailed analysis will come in later posts, but since I'm heading off to the cottage for the weekend, I figured I should get something up before I go. When I made the map, I only used a simple uniform swing model for each region of the province using the most recent Leger poll. I do not intend to just use a uniform swing model though, as you will note I have tried to avoid in the past. Though, Quebec more than any other province is the most “uniform” in its vote swings between elections.

If you have any comments about how you think a riding will go, please email me or comment on this post explaining why you think so. Viewer feedback is key in making accurate predictions. Even though it didn't go so well for the Alberta election a few months ago.

The projected seat totals based on my first prediction map show a very close race, but with the PQ ahead. It's still anyone's game as there are 33 seats that my projection shows as having the two leading parties within 5% of each other (I will narrow this down to 3% in future predictions):


Party
Projected seat total
Parti Quebecois
48
Liberal
37
Coalition Avenir Quebec
6
Quebec Solidaire
1
Too close to call
33