Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Final edition)

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Newfoundland and Labrador goes to the polls today, and we can expect nothing short of another Tory landslide. The party, which has been in power since 2003, is expected to win a third straight majority mandate. That would normally mean a boring election, however the race is still on for which party will be the official opposition.

Two polls were released last week, one by Environics and one by Corporate Research Associates. Environics shows the Tories at 54%, the NDP at 33%, and the Liberals at 13%. Corporate Research shows the Tories at a whopping 59%, the NDP down to 25% and the Liberals at 16%. Corporate Research also showed us some regional breakdowns, with the Tories ahead across the province. The NDP is in 2nd place in the eastern part of the province, and in the St. John's area, while the Liberals are 2nd in the west. Their regional numbers seem to reflect my presumptions about what is going on in the province, with the NDP's surge mainly concentrated in the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats.

With the NDP seen by many Newfoundlanders as the new opposition party, it will be interesting to see how they do. Much of the St. John's area is a strong Tory area, where most incumbents are running for re-election, therefore the NDP will have a hard time winning seats on 25-33% of the province-wide vote. The pundits are suggesting the best shots for the NDP in the area are St. John's North and St. John's Centre, and apparently the Tories and NDP are running neck and neck in the city. Given all the information I could gather, I've compiled my projections.


Riding by riding projections:

Riding
PC
Lib
NDP
Oth
Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale
44
37
19
-
Kevin Pollard
Bay of Islands
42
35
23
-

Terry Loder
Bellevue
42
35
23
-

Calvin Peach
Bonavista North
57
24
19
-

Eli Cross
Bonavista South
80
6
14
-

Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile
37
55
8
-

Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West
48
3
49
-

Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis
56
5
39
-

Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace
61
12
27
0
Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair
20
67
13
-

Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island
56
7
37
-

David Brazil
Conception Bay South
64
9
27
-

Terry French
Exploits
59
20
21
-

Clayton Forsey
Ferryland
69
3
28
-

Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune
52
29
19
-

Tracey Perry
Gander
55
16
29
-

Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank
64
13
23
-

Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans
56
2
42
-

Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South
61
20
25
-

Ray Hunter
Harbour Main
68
4
28
-

Tom Hedderson
Humber East
73
4
23
-

Tom Marshall
Humber Valley
50
46
4
-

Darryl Kelly
Humber West
53
27
20
-

Vaughn Granter
Kilbride
61
4
35
-

John Dinn
Labrador West
34
3
63
-

Tom Harris
Lake Melville
43
34
23
-

Keith Russell
Lewisporte
60
10
30
-

Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North
66
3
31
-

Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South
66
3
31
-

Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's
65
14
21
-

Felix Collins
Port au Port
70
10
20
-

Tony Cornect
Port de Grave
33
44
23
-

Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi
27
2
71
-

Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe
47
38
15
-

Wallace Young
St. George's-Stephenville East
41
39
18
2
Joan Burke
St. John's Centre
48
3
49
-

Gerry Rogers
St. John's East
48
8
44
-

Ed Buckingham
St. John's North
46
7
47
-

Dale Kirby
St. John's South
57
4
39
-

Tom Osborne
St. John's West
50
15
35
-

Dan Crummell
Terra Nova
63
10
25
2
Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame
49
44
7
-

Derrick Dalley
The Straits-White Bay North
31
47
22
-

Marshall Dean
Topsail
62
2
36
-

Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains
50
37
13
-

Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde
58
16
26
-

Charlene Johnson
Trinity North
71
6
23
-

Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters
54
3
43
-

Kathy Dunderdale

Predicting the toss ups

Burin-Placentia West
This is certainly an odd seat to suggest the NDP has a chance in, but it's true. The riding isn't in the St. John's area, and the federal party did very poor in this area. The Tory MHA for this riding is the Fisheries Minister, and he is coming under some heat. The NDP candidate, Julie Mitchell ran in this riding in 2007 and did very well. I expect her to gain this seat.

Humber Valley
This is a rematch of the 2007 election between former Liberal MHA Dwight Ball and current Tory MHA Darryl Kelly. That race was quite close, with Kelly winning by about 250 votes. Poll don't suggest much change in this part of the province, so I predict that Kelly will keep this seat.

St. George's-Stephensville East
This is the riding where Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is attempting to gain a seat in the house. He will have a hard time however, as the Tory incumbent, Joan Burke received 75% of the vote here in 2007. Aylward did hold the seat from 1985 to 2003. His final election in 1999 was decided by just 600 votes, despite a Liberal majority government. Burke won the election to replace Aylward by just 500 votes. I expect another close race here, but I think Burke will hold on, embarrassing the Liberals.

The Isles of Notre Dame
Former Liberal leader Gerry Reid lost by just 7 votes in this riding in 2007. He won't be running again this time, but the Liberals are still challenging here with their candidate in Danny Dumaresque. Dumaresque is a former president of the Liberals, and a former MHA representing a Labrador riding. He also ran for the leadership of the party. Given all that, I still feel the Tories will keep this seat.

St. John's East
With the NDP surge happening in St. John's they are sure to be on the rise here. This was the party's best St. John's riding in 2007. They are running consumer advocate George Murphy. If the NDP has a good night, they will win this seat, but for now I think the Tories will keep it.

St. John's Centre
The pundits think that the NDP has a shot here, and so with the NDP on the rise in the city, I'll have to call this for them. They are running filmmaker Gerry Rogers in the riding. She is up against cabinet minister Shawn Skinner. Openly Lesbian, let's hope that homophobia isn't a factor here for Rogers. For the record, the NDP lost this seat by 2700 votes in 2007.

St. John's North
The other seat the pundits say the NDP has a chance in is here. The party is running Dale Kirby, “an award winning” professor at Memorial University. Bob Ridgley is the Tory MHA. The NDP finished third here in 2007, losing by 3000 votes. However, given the rise in the numbers for the party, I will project an NDP win here.



Conclusion
It appears as though it will be much the same in 2011 as it was in 2007, with the Tories winning a landslide election. PC leader Kathy Dunderdale is no Danny Williams, but voters will opt to stay the course in a province that has never been as prosperous. However, the big news will be that the NDP should eke out official opposition status, as long as they can make actual seat gains in St. John's.

Polls close at 8pm Newfoundland time, or 6:30 Eastern.

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