Thursday, September 29, 2011

Forum Research poll riding by riding map

Last weekend, Forum Research published a poll of 40,000 Ontarians asking their voting intentions for the provincial election next week. The sample was so high, that they were able to get numbers for individual ridings. I have been trying franctically this past week to find some information about how they have local races, and I had only been able to find the GTA numbers and a few others. Well, this morning I got a surprise email from Krago who posts on the forums. He sent me an email with all of the numbers. And since this is an Elections Atlas, what better way to show those numbers than in map form? Here it is:

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
The map is not too off my prediction, but there are a few anomalies I must investigate. Among the ridings I have not called for the Tories, they are apparently ahead in Brant, Kitchener Centre, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Brampton-Springdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Kenora-Rainy River and Ottawa-Orleans. Meanwhile, the Liberals are ahead in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Windsor West, Perth-Wellington, Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Kitchener-Waterloo and Ottawa Centre. The NDP was the big loser in this poll, but the one bright spot for them is they area ahead in London-Fanshawe despite my last prediction.

Of course, I have my suspicions about some of the local numbers, but for the most part this map is going to be pretty accurate.


  1. Again I just want to stress that quantifying the uncertainty in that 40,000 Forum poll is not possible due to possible sampling error.

    Some degree of hesitation should be used when approaching their findings.

    Additionally, each Forum riding level result should have a unique margin of error related to its sample size. The 0.5% can only be applied to the provincial average (assuming the sample is representative).

  2. I just wanted to post the results. I'm aware of the issues. In fact, some new poll results (again by Forum Research) in Parkdale-High Park and York South-Weston show large NDP leads there after all. And the NDP is close in Bramalea-Gore-Malton and in Sudbury.