Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 16)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
It's time for another Ontario projection, because there has been yet another provincial poll to be released for the upcoming provincial election. Nanos Research has released their first provincial poll since one taken in May, shortly after the federal election. This poll, which was just taken last week confirms the Liberal surge we saw in the Ipsos-Reid poll which I analyzed in my last projection. One thing that is surprising is an apparent collapse in the NDP vote.

The Nanos numbers are as follows:

Prog. Cons.: 42% (+1 from May)
Liberals: 38% (+4)
NDP: 16% (-3)
Greens: 3% (-3)

Additionally, the NDP is 7% lower than the Ipsos-Reid poll taken just a week before. So, what's going on? Could it be the Turmel affair is affecting provincial politics? Maybe, but Nanos has had a reputation of polling the NDP lower than other pollsters, as we saw in the early stages of the federal election. They were the last polling firm to catch the "orange wave", although their final polling numbers turned out to be quite accurate.

In September, my projection will be based more on an average of multiple polls. But for now, since polls are coming in slowly, I have been doing a separate projection for each poll to come out, regardless of the polling firm. That means large swings have meant large projection changes in my model.

Here are my current seat by seat projections based on this recent Nanos poll:


Riding Lib PC NDP Grn Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering 46 43 7 4 Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin 38 22
35
3 Mike Brown
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
37
47
12
4 Donna Skelly
Barrie
29
55
11
5 Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
25
23
44 8 Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton 44
35
19
2 Kuldip Kular
Brampton West 44 44
10
2 Vic Dhillon or Ben Shenouda
Brampton—Springdale 45
42
10
3 Linda Jeffrey
Brant 45
40
13
2 Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
28
54
9
9 Bill Walkerl
Burlington
33
54
10
3 Jane McKenna
Cambridge
29
53
15
3 Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
37
55
5
3 Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
31
51
15
3 Rick Nicholls
Davenport
40
12
45 3 Jonah Schein
Don Valley East 46
37
15
2 Michael Coteau
Don Valley West 48
42
6
4 Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
25
54
8
13 Sylvia Jones
Durham
30
55
11
4 John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence 50
39
9
2 Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
29
55
14
2 Jeff Yurek
Essex
27
46
25
2 Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre 50
41
7
2 Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North 51
30
17
2 Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 44
42
10
4 Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 50
42
5
3 Grant Crack
Guelph 46
33
12
9 Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
24
65
9
2 Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
36
49
11
4 Laurie Scott
Halton
37
54
7
2 Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
25
23
47 5 Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
29
34
35 2 Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain 33
32
33 2 Sophia Aggelonitis or Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce
42
43
13
2 Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River
32
38
29
2 TBD
Kingston and the Islands 44
33
20
3 John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre 43
37
16
3 John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
38
47
12
3 Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
31
51
14
4 Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
42
46
10
2 Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
35
50
11
4 Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville
27
61
8
4 Steve Clark
London North Centre 44
35
16
5 Deb Matthews
London West 49
39
10
2 Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe 36
32
30
2 Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville 50
38
10
2 Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville 50
41
8
1 Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South 45 45
8
2 Charles Sousa or Geoff Janoscik
Mississauga—Brampton South 46
43
10
1 Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale 44
43
10
2 Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville 47
41
9
3 Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
33
54
8
5 Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
37
53
6
4 Frank Klees
Niagara Falls 45
43
9
3 Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook
24
63
10
3 Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
28
24
46 2 France Gelinas
Nipissing
37
49
12
2 Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West
42
44
11
3 Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham
41
50
7
2 Farid Wassef
Oakville 46
45
6
3 Kevin Flynn
Oshawa
20
50
28
2 Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre
34
23
37 6 Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South 49
38
9
4 Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean 44
44
9
3 Bob Chiarelli or Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans 49
44
5
2 Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier 47
26
22
5 Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
27
59
11
3 Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
28
16
50 5 Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
22
57
13
8 Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington
43
44
9
4 Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough 44
38
15
3 Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East 47
38
12
3 Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
40
46
12
2 Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
21
70
7
2 John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill 45
43
9
3 Reza Moridi
St. Catharines 43
39
15
3 Jim Bradley
St. Paul's 46
32
16
6 Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
26
53
21
2 Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie 54
25
20
1 David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre 45
36
18
2 Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest 42
31
24
3 Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt 53
32
14
1 Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood 42
34
22
2 Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River 58
27
14
1 Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
27
60
8
5 Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
24
60
8
8 Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
31
60
8
1 Jim McDonnell
Sudbury 52
22
24
2 Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill
36
57
5
2 Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
33
30
36 1 Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North 44
19
35
2 Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane
36
25
38 1 John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
30
29
40 1 Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre 47
23
24
6 Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
29
14
50 7 Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
35
17
44 5 Rosario Marchese
Vaughan 53
37
9
1 Greg Sorbara
Welland
27
39
32
2 Domenic Ursini
Wellington—Halton Hills
27
60
8
5 Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
28
56
12
4 Christine Elliott
Willowdale 46
43
8
3 David Zimmer
Windsor West
27
31
41 2 Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh 45
31
22
2 Dwight Duncan
York Centre
44
45
10
1 Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston 40
18
40 2 Paul Ferreira or Laura Albanese
York West 53
19
27
1 Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
27
60
9
4 Julia Munro


Conclusion
Even though the Liberals are behind the Tories by 4 points, they are still virtually tied with the Tories in terms of seat totals in my projection. This means a minority government of some sort, despite the NDP losing a lot of projected seats. However, both the Tories and the Liberals could win a majority government if they win all of their toss up seats.


Party Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table) Change from last projection Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
39 +4 43
37 -5 46
9 -7 13
Toss ups* 22 +8
5 (ties) 

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.

3 comments:

  1. Nanos always seems to have funny numbers. I'd love to have an inside seat and see how their polling is conducted.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I have noticed that about Nanos too.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ClixSense is a very popular work from home website.

    ReplyDelete