Friday, August 26, 2011

Referendum to abolish HST passes in BC

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.
The results are finally in from the HST referendum in British Columbia. And the result is a "yes" victory for abolishing the unpopular Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) brought in by the Gordon Campbell government in 2009.

Last year, Elections BC approved a petition started by former Premier Bill Vander Zalm to have a referendum on the HST. The HST was seen by many economists as a good idea that will save the government money. Opponents saw it as a sneaky tax grab that was not promised by the Campbell government. At the depths of his popularity, Campbell resigned over the issue and was replaced by Christy Clark in the Premier's chair.

The referendum was conducted using mail-in ballots this summer, from June 13 to August 5. It took Elections BC 21 days to compile the results. The question on the ballot read:
"Are you in favour of extinguishing the HST (Harmonized Sales Tax) and reinstating the PST (Provincial Sales Tax) in conjuction with the GST (Goods and Services Tax)?"
The BC Liberals were obviously against abolishing the HST, while the opposition NDP was in favour. However, opposition came from anti-tax conservatives as well, including Vander Zalm, who was the leader of the Social Credit Party, a now defunct conservative party in the province.

In a wave of populist disconent, BC voters voted to abolish the HST:


Total votes
%
Yes
881,198
54.73
No
728,927
45.27

Not a single riding that went NDP in the 2009 provincial election voted against abolishing the HST. In addition, nearly half of 2009 Liberal ridings voted to abolish it.

2009 winner
Yes ridings
No ridings
BC Liberals
20
23
NDP
35
0
Independent
0
1

The results were for the most part split upon class lines, with wealthier areas such as North Vancouver voting heavily against extinguishing the HST while more working class areas like in North Surrey and East Vancouver voting in favour of the measure.


Sign in favour of extinguishing the HST

More populist conservative areas that usually vote heavily Liberal in provincial elections also voted Yes, like in the Peace River region and in Richmond.

And now, the BC government has the difficult task of undoing what was alread done. They have set the time table to abolish it by 2013, just before the next election is scheduled. However, there is some speculation that Premier Clark might drop the writs as early as this Fall, which could be political suicide considering the huge defeat that this is for her governing Liberal party. However, critics suggest her party now has no legitimacy. And now, the federal Conservatives want the money back that they gave to BC to help them implement the HST. The provincial NDP has come out against this. It will be interesting to see how politics in BC will go over the next few months.


On a completely unrelated note, I just wanted to pay my respects to Jack Layton who passed away on Monday. I had the good fortune of meeting him three times. It was quite a sad week for me, as the NDP has been the party I personally support.  May you rest in peace, Jack.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 16)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
It's time for another Ontario projection, because there has been yet another provincial poll to be released for the upcoming provincial election. Nanos Research has released their first provincial poll since one taken in May, shortly after the federal election. This poll, which was just taken last week confirms the Liberal surge we saw in the Ipsos-Reid poll which I analyzed in my last projection. One thing that is surprising is an apparent collapse in the NDP vote.

The Nanos numbers are as follows:

Prog. Cons.: 42% (+1 from May)
Liberals: 38% (+4)
NDP: 16% (-3)
Greens: 3% (-3)

Additionally, the NDP is 7% lower than the Ipsos-Reid poll taken just a week before. So, what's going on? Could it be the Turmel affair is affecting provincial politics? Maybe, but Nanos has had a reputation of polling the NDP lower than other pollsters, as we saw in the early stages of the federal election. They were the last polling firm to catch the "orange wave", although their final polling numbers turned out to be quite accurate.

In September, my projection will be based more on an average of multiple polls. But for now, since polls are coming in slowly, I have been doing a separate projection for each poll to come out, regardless of the polling firm. That means large swings have meant large projection changes in my model.

Here are my current seat by seat projections based on this recent Nanos poll:


Riding Lib PC NDP Grn Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering 46 43 7 4 Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin 38 22
35
3 Mike Brown
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
37
47
12
4 Donna Skelly
Barrie
29
55
11
5 Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
25
23
44 8 Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton 44
35
19
2 Kuldip Kular
Brampton West 44 44
10
2 Vic Dhillon or Ben Shenouda
Brampton—Springdale 45
42
10
3 Linda Jeffrey
Brant 45
40
13
2 Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
28
54
9
9 Bill Walkerl
Burlington
33
54
10
3 Jane McKenna
Cambridge
29
53
15
3 Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
37
55
5
3 Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
31
51
15
3 Rick Nicholls
Davenport
40
12
45 3 Jonah Schein
Don Valley East 46
37
15
2 Michael Coteau
Don Valley West 48
42
6
4 Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
25
54
8
13 Sylvia Jones
Durham
30
55
11
4 John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence 50
39
9
2 Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
29
55
14
2 Jeff Yurek
Essex
27
46
25
2 Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre 50
41
7
2 Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North 51
30
17
2 Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 44
42
10
4 Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 50
42
5
3 Grant Crack
Guelph 46
33
12
9 Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
24
65
9
2 Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
36
49
11
4 Laurie Scott
Halton
37
54
7
2 Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
25
23
47 5 Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
29
34
35 2 Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain 33
32
33 2 Sophia Aggelonitis or Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce
42
43
13
2 Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River
32
38
29
2 TBD
Kingston and the Islands 44
33
20
3 John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre 43
37
16
3 John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
38
47
12
3 Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
31
51
14
4 Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
42
46
10
2 Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
35
50
11
4 Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville
27
61
8
4 Steve Clark
London North Centre 44
35
16
5 Deb Matthews
London West 49
39
10
2 Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe 36
32
30
2 Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville 50
38
10
2 Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville 50
41
8
1 Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South 45 45
8
2 Charles Sousa or Geoff Janoscik
Mississauga—Brampton South 46
43
10
1 Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale 44
43
10
2 Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville 47
41
9
3 Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
33
54
8
5 Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
37
53
6
4 Frank Klees
Niagara Falls 45
43
9
3 Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook
24
63
10
3 Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
28
24
46 2 France Gelinas
Nipissing
37
49
12
2 Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West
42
44
11
3 Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham
41
50
7
2 Farid Wassef
Oakville 46
45
6
3 Kevin Flynn
Oshawa
20
50
28
2 Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre
34
23
37 6 Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South 49
38
9
4 Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean 44
44
9
3 Bob Chiarelli or Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans 49
44
5
2 Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier 47
26
22
5 Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
27
59
11
3 Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
28
16
50 5 Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
22
57
13
8 Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington
43
44
9
4 Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough 44
38
15
3 Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East 47
38
12
3 Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
40
46
12
2 Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
21
70
7
2 John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill 45
43
9
3 Reza Moridi
St. Catharines 43
39
15
3 Jim Bradley
St. Paul's 46
32
16
6 Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
26
53
21
2 Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie 54
25
20
1 David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre 45
36
18
2 Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest 42
31
24
3 Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt 53
32
14
1 Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood 42
34
22
2 Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River 58
27
14
1 Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
27
60
8
5 Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
24
60
8
8 Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
31
60
8
1 Jim McDonnell
Sudbury 52
22
24
2 Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill
36
57
5
2 Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
33
30
36 1 Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North 44
19
35
2 Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane
36
25
38 1 John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
30
29
40 1 Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre 47
23
24
6 Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
29
14
50 7 Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
35
17
44 5 Rosario Marchese
Vaughan 53
37
9
1 Greg Sorbara
Welland
27
39
32
2 Domenic Ursini
Wellington—Halton Hills
27
60
8
5 Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
28
56
12
4 Christine Elliott
Willowdale 46
43
8
3 David Zimmer
Windsor West
27
31
41 2 Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh 45
31
22
2 Dwight Duncan
York Centre
44
45
10
1 Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston 40
18
40 2 Paul Ferreira or Laura Albanese
York West 53
19
27
1 Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
27
60
9
4 Julia Munro


Conclusion
Even though the Liberals are behind the Tories by 4 points, they are still virtually tied with the Tories in terms of seat totals in my projection. This means a minority government of some sort, despite the NDP losing a lot of projected seats. However, both the Tories and the Liberals could win a majority government if they win all of their toss up seats.


Party Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table) Change from last projection Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
39 +4 43
37 -5 46
9 -7 13
Toss ups* 22 +8
5 (ties) 

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Saskatchewan 2011 election prediction (August edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
There has finally been a poll released in Saskatchewan for their provincial election which will be held in November. My last projection was based on a poll from last November. Insightrix Research released a poll yesterday for the first time since April 2010. The poll conducted in November was by Sigma. Anyways, not much has changed since the poll in November, the right wing Saskatchewan Party still holds a massive lead over the NDP:

Saskatchewan Party: 58%
New Democratic Party: 31%
Green Party: 5%
Liberal Party: 4%

Yes, that's right. The Liberals are behind the Green Party, perhaps due to their falling to third party status in the Canadian House of Commons.These results are not much different from November, where the Saskatchewan Party is up one point, the NDP up 2 points, the Greens are even and the Liberals are down 4 points.

Just like for Ontario, I hope to do riding by riding projections for the other provinces holding elections this fall. They will be less accurate, as my local knowledge for other provinces is limited, and there is less discussion out there about other provincial races. However, I will try and do my best. Once again, comments would be appreciated.


Riding SP NDP Lib Grn Projected winning candidate
Arm River-Watrous 65 23 7 5 Greg Brkich
Athabasca
39
53 2 6 Buckley Belanger
Batoche 65
29
3 4 Delbert Kirsch
Biggar 64
28
2 6 Randy Weekes
Cannington 82
13
4 1 Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly 71
24
1 4 Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley 69
27
2 2 Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland
40
48 3 9 Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford 69
25
2 4 Larry Doke
Cypress Hills 81
12
2 5 Wayne Elhard
Estevan 73
12
10 5 Doreen Eagles
Humboldt 65
22
7 6 Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone 71
19
4 6 Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena 77
17
1 5 June Draude
Kindersley 71
19
4 6 Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood 67
25
3 5 Glen Hart
Lloydminster 68
31
1 1 Ted McMillan
Martensville 80
13
2 5 Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake
52
46
1 1 Jeremy Harrison
Melfort 72
24
3 1 Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats 66
31
2 1 Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North 53
39
4 4 Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow
43
47 5 5 Deb Higgins
Moosomin 79
15
5 1 Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton 53
41
2 4 Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote
42
49 5 4 Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park
39
50 6 5 Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney 47
40
10 5 Gene Makowksy
Regina Douglas Park
38
48 7 7 Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre
27
59 6 8 Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview
40
42 11 7 John Nilson
Regina Northeast 48
43
4 5 Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley 50
35
11 4 Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont
43
47 4 6 Trent Wotherspoon
Regina South 51
35
8 6 Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres
37
54 3 6 Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains 60
26
9 5 Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose 77
14
3 6 Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shellbrook 61
33
2 4 Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers 62
35
2 1 Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre
38
53 4 5 David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview
49
43
3 5 Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview
42
48 5 5 Andy Iwanchuk
Saskatoon Greystone 47
33
15 5 Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place
43
50 3 4 Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin 53
40
4 5 Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest 61
32
2 5 Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana
41
46 6 7 Catherine Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale
39
54 2 5 Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs 70
21
4 5 Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast 66
24
5 5 Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland 52
37
5 6 Paul Merriman
Swift Current 78
16
2 4 Brad Wall
The Battlefords 46
40
10 4 Herb Cox
Thunder Creek 75
17
3 5 Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy 68
22
5 5 Dustin Duncan
Wood River 79
11
5 5 Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton 66
32
1 1 Greg Ottenbreit

Conclusion
Very little has changed since my last projection. The number crunching does reveal however that there are very few close races in the province. Only four are currently projected to be within 5% of each other (indicated as toss ups on the map). My projection has eliminated five toss up seats, and added one. This gives the NDP a net gain of three projected seats from my last projection, and the Saskatchewan Party receives a net gain of one.

Overall, the Saskatchewan Party is still projected to win a massive majority government, gaining a maximum of 8 seats from the NDP. The NDP's best case scenario at the moment is 16 seats, still four less than they currently hold.


Party Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table) Change from last projection Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
Sask Party
42 +1 43
NDP
12 +3 15
Toss ups* 4 -4

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 5%.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 11)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
Another Ontario poll has been released, and that means an update to my projection. Ipsos-Reid released a poll yesterday that was taken over the August long weekend. It shows very different numbers from what we saw earlier in the Summer.

The Liberals are up 7 points from the previous Ipsos-Reid poll taken in June, and are now at 36%. They are in a statistical tie with the Tories who are at 38%, down four points. The NDP is at 23%, up 1% from the last Ipsos-Reid poll, but down 1% from the last Forum Research poll taken a few days prior. The Greens are down to just 3% from 5%.

This means a lot has changed in my projection. Most of the ridings I have projected a large Liberal increase in the vote, mostly at the expense of the Greens. Included in my projection this time around will be the projected winning candidate.


Riding Lib PC NDP Grn Projected winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering 45 39 12 4 Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin
36
19 42 3 Mike Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
36
44
16
4 Donna Skelly
Barrie
27
50
18
5 Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
21
22
50 7 Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton 42
30
26
2 Kuldip Kular
Brampton West 43
41
14
2 Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale 43
37
17
3 Linda Jeffrey
Brant 43
35
20
2 Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
26
50
15
9 Bill Walker
Burlington
31
49
17
3 Jane McKenna
Cambridge
27
48
22
3 Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
35
49
12
3 Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
29
46
22
3 Rick Nicholls
Davenport
38
11
48 3 Jonah Schein
Don Valley East 44
32
22
2 Michael Coteau
Don Valley West 47
41
9
3 Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
25
52
10
13 Sylvia Jones
Durham
28
50
18
4 John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence 49
37
12
2 Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
27
50
21
2 Jeff Yurek
Essex
25
41
32
2 Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre 48
38
12
2 Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North 50
27
21
2 Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 42
37
17
4 Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 48
37
12
3 Grant Crack
Guelph 45
31
15
8 Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
23
62
13
2 Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
36
48
12
4 Laurie Scott
Halton
35
49
14
2 Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
25
20
50 5 Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
27
31
40 2 Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain
33
27
38 2 Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce 40
38
20
2 Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River
30
33
36 2 TBD
Kingston and the Islands 44
32
21
3 John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre 43
34
20
3 John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
38
42
17
3 Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
31
47
18
4 Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
40
41
17
2 Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
33
45
18
4 Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville
25
58
13
4 Steve Clark
London North Centre 42
31
22
5 Deb Matthews
London West 47
34
17
2 Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe 34
31
33
2 Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville 48
33
17
2 Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville 48
36
15
1 Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South 45
43
10
2 Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South 45
39
15
1 Amrit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale 43
41
14
2 Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville 46
38
13
3 Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
32
52
13
3 Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
35
49
12
4 Frank Klees
Niagara Falls 43
38
16
3 Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook
22
58
17
3 Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
27
20
51 2 France Gelinas
Nipissing
36
47
15
2 Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West 40
39
18
3 Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham
39
45
14
2 Farid Wassef
Oakville 46
40
11
3 Kevin Flynn
Oshawa
18
45
35
2 Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre
33
22
41 4 Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South 48
33
16
3 Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean 42
39
16
3 Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans 47
40
11
2 Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier 46
26
24
4 Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
25
54
18
3 Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
27
15
53 4 Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
20
52
20
8 Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington 41
39
16
4 John Wilkinson
Peterborough 42
33
22
3 Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East 46
35
16
3 Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
38
41
19
2 Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
20
67
11
2 John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill 44
39
14
3 Reza Moridi
St. Catharines 42
37
18
3 Jim Bradley
St. Paul's 45
31
19
5 Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
24
48
26
2 Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie 52
20
27
1 David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre 43
31
24
2 Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest 40
26
31
3 Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt 51
32
16
1 Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood 41
33
25
1 Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River 56
22
21
1 Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
25
55
15
5 Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
23
56
13
8 Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
29
55
15
1 Jim McDonell
Sudbury 50
17
31
2 Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill
35
54
9
2 Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
33
25
41 1 Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North 42
14
42 2 Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane
34
20
45 1 John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
29
25
45 1 Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre 46
22
27
5 Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
27
13
53 7 Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
33
16
47 4 Rosario Marchese
Vaughan 53
36
10
1 Greg Sorbara
Welland
25
34
39 2 Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills
27
58
10
5 Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
26
51
19
4 Christine Elliott
Willowdale 45
38
14
3 David Zimmer
Windsor West
25
26
48 2 Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh 43
26
29
2 Dwight Duncan
York Centre 43
43
13
1 Monte Kwinter or Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston
40
17
41 2 Paul Ferreira
York West 53
18
28
1 Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
25
55
16
4 Julia Munro



Conclusion
Despite still trailing in the popular vote, the Liberals would win a minority government in my current projection. This is a huge turnaround from a month ago. The reason for this is because my projection shows the Liberals winning more seats by small margins than the Tories at this point in time. The Tories have a lot of their vote "wasted" in rural ridings, where they are projected to rack up massive majorities, while the Liberals are still only projected to win a majority of the vote in a handful of seats.

The Liberals have secured this projected lead by retaking many of the ridings they were projected to lose in the "905 belt", and are now projected to shutout the Tories in Mississauga, Brampton and Toronto (except for one tie in York Centre). Meanwhile, the Liberals are now projected to win many of their rural seats- at least in ridings where they still have incumbents. Most of those seats are still toss ups, however.

Presently, the Liberal's minimum seat total (42) is still below the Tory maximum (49), meaning that a Tory minority government is still possible. The Liberal maximum is 55, which also happens to be one more seat  than what is needed to win a majority government. The NDP slight decline in this poll (compared to the Forum Research poll) means a projected decrease in two seats from my last projection.The NDP maximum is 20, down 1 from last time.

Party Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table) Change from last projection Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
42 +15 50
35 -7 37

16 -2 18
Toss ups* 14 -6 2 (ties) 

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.